Commentary
Market Commentary - March 13, 2026
The Condition of the Economy
- War has broken out in Iran and the Gulf countries which has constricted the global supply of oil significantly. Twenty percent of world oil production flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which is entirely closed at present.
- Constricted supply has raised oil prices sharply, causing economic dislocation around the world. Energy is directly and indirectly a significant part of the average household budget, so the risk of inflation is mounting.
- The data continue to indicate a weaker job market and softening consumer sentiment. Offsetting these is healthy corporate profit growth. The risk of recession is growing but we will know more in the weeks and months ahead.
The Condition of the Stock Market
- The stock market is getting rocked by news, causing considerable anxiety among investors, but the weight of evidence for the market’s underlying dynamics continues to support a bullish view.
- Measures of buying enthusiasm remain in the dominant position, breadth is strong, and many other measures of market health still favor the bulls. As such, we remain positive on the market’s intermediate-term direction.