Commentary
Market Commentary - June 17, 2026
The Condition of the Economy
- The war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to rise substantially, leading to a spike in inflation. The 60-day pause in the fighting, and the reopening of the Strait, should lead to some relief.
- The keys to avoiding a substantial downturn in 2026 remain continued strength in U.S. corporate profits and capital expenditures, accompanied by a healthy labor market.
- The Fed’s unemployment mandate is satisfied but we would expect discussion of possible rate hikes over the rest of the year.
The Condition of the Stock Market
- Many investors have been surprised by the stock market’s resilience since the start of the Iran war, but the technical data over the last few months have never tipped negative.
- This serves as a reminder the stock market’s internal condition often has a different opinion from what the average investor might expect.
- The data currently forecast higher prices ahead, but in the near term suggest further consolidation after the highs earlier this month.